Inflation in the United States in October increased by 0.9% mom, and in annual terms accelerated to 6.2% after 5.4% in September. The main reason for this dynamics was the rise in gasoline prices due to the rise in the cost of energy resources. In the coming months, we forecast a decline in prices for hydrocarbons on the back of stabilization of prices for oil products. Prices for travel services have declined. The demand for cars, both new (+ 1.4%) and maintained (+ 2.5%), increased.
Due to the continuing difficult epidemic situation, this trend is likely to continue, despite the overheating of this segment of the economy.
Among the long-term drivers of inflation growth are the dynamics of prices for rent of primary housing amid the recovery of the labor market and a dynamic increase in wages, which also stimulates the rise in prices for food and catering services. We believe that inflation in the United States in October reached one of its peak levels for the next four to five months.